Why Trump Will Win.

october 1 2024

By john ellis

The polls have it tied in the seven so-called battleground states that will decide the outcome of the presidential election in the Electoral College. Those seven states are Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Georgia, North Carolina, Arizona and Nevada. If you click on the hyperlinks, you’ll see a statistical tie in all seven.

It’s close nationally as well, although I think it is safe to say that Vice President Harris will win the national popular vote by at least 4 million votes, based on past results (Clinton won by 3 million votes in 2016, Biden won by 7 million votes in 2020). If she loses the popular vote, she will lose all seven battleground states.

One way to look at presidential election campaigns is to ignore the candidates and explore the political environment. How the electorate sees “the big picture” doesn’t necessarily determine how this or that “persuadable” voter will vote. But it’s hard to win if you’re swimming against the tide, and the tide is going out on the Biden-Harris administration. Whether it takes Kamala Harris with it isn’t certain. It wouldn’t be a surprise.

Let’s review the bidding: